JHU BLAST Working Group

Bayesian Learning and Spatio-Temporal modeling
Department of Biostatistics
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Leadership

Photo of Abhi Datta

Abhi Datta

Associate Professor

Department of Biostatistics

Abhi develops statistical and machine learning methods for large spatial datasets as well as Bayesian models for multi-source epidemiological datasets.

Photo of Aki Nishimura

Aki Nishimura

Assistant Professor

Department of Biostatistics

Aki uses Bayesian methods and statistical computing to tackle methodological challenges in healthcare analytics and large-scale biomedical applications.

Upcoming Events

Neural variational inference for cutting feedback during uncertainty propagation

Wednesday, November 5, 2025

Speaker: Jiafang Song (Johns Hopkins University)

In many scientific applications, uncertainty of estimates from an upstream analysis needs to be propagated into a downstream analysis without feedback. Cutting feedback, or cut-Bayes, achieves this by constructing a cut-posterior distribution that prevents backward information flow. However, sampling-based implementations of cutting feedback, like nested MCMC, are computationally intensive, while existing variational inference (VI) approaches require two approximations and access to upstream data. We propose NeVI-Cut, a neural network-based variational inference method for cutting feedback. NeVI-Cut directly uses upstream samples without requiring access to upstream data, avoiding extra approximation error. We employ normalizing flows, neural network-based generative models, to flexibly model the downstream conditional distribution. We provide theoretical guarantees for NeVI-Cut to approximate any cut-posterior. A triply stochastic algorithm implements the method. Simulation studies and two real-world analysis show that NeVI-Cut achieves substantial computational gains over sampling-based cutting feedback methods and is more accurate than parametric variational cut approaches.